“If we take them out of the ground at too warm a temperature, they do not store as well in the pile,” Hergenrider said. Most sugar beets are purchased by sugar companies that turn them into granulated sugar, so farmers and sugar companies must consider not only the harvest itself, but also the length of time that beets sit in a pile, waiting to be processed. Making sure those forecasts are as accurate as possible is hugely important for the agricultural industry, and sugar beet farmers in particular. “One minute, the model will say one thing, and the next day, it says the opposite,” he said. Day, who has been forecasting weather for nearly 30 years, said that’s exactly what he has seen over the last few months: Longer-range forecasts - a week to 10 days in the future - are less accurate than usual. Today’s forecast might be off by just 3 degrees, for example, but that seemingly tiny difference could amount to an error of up to 7 degrees for a forecast 10 days later. “The smallest error in data compounds itself over time,” says Jeff Weber, a meteorologist at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, a nonprofit consortium of weather and climate experts. “The smallest error in data compounds itself over time.” But the complex interactions between temperature and moisture in the upper atmosphere change quickly, so less frequent, more outdated readings mean worse predictions, especially for forecasts a week in advance. Typically, flight-collected data helps meteorologists estimate how weather patterns might evolve in the coming days. The problem is magnified for long-term forecasts. “If you don’t have good inputs over the oceans, you’re going to have weather forecasts that aren’t going to be as accurate,” Day said. begin over the Pacific, transoceanic flights provide particularly valuable data for forecasters in the West. Because temperatures and storms that eventually hit the Western U.S. That’s especially true in what Don Day, a meteorologist in Cheyenne, Wyoming, calls “weather-data deserts,” like the skies above the Pacific Ocean. While weather models also use data from weather balloons, ground-based sensors and satellite images, flights fill in important gaps. Fewer readings mean that experts have an incomplete picture of what’s happening in our skies, resulting in murkier forecasts for farmers. But as the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe in early 2020, travel ground to a halt: In March, air traffic was cut by 75% to 80%, leaving meteorologists with just a fraction of their usual data, and, by September, many airlines were still operating less than half their pre-pandemic flights. To create forecasts, meteorologists look to weather models fueled in part by temperature, pressure and humidity readings collected by commercial flights. As with any harvest, timing is key, and weather is a wild card: Wet or frigid conditions make harvesting difficult, while warm temperatures can spoil harvested beets.Īnd this year, weather predictions are more precarious than usual, because of COVID-19. She, her father, a hired helper and her sister - a schoolteacher who helps on weekends - typically work 16- to 18-hour days for two to three weeks, using a defoliator to lop off the beets’ leafy green tops, then a harvester to pull the vegetables out of the ground. On her 700-acre farm in south-central Montana, 15 miles north of the Wyoming border, it’s sugar beet harvest season. October is always a busy month for Rhonda Hergenrider. Like Tweet Email Print Subscribe Donate Now
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